‘There’s no stopping it,’ warns Ron Paul: A ‘calamity’ could cut this market in half
Posted by freedomforall 7 years, 1 month ago to Business
“The correction is going to be huge, and I don’t think anybody can predict, but I think this correction we had in ‘08 and ‘09 wasn’t allowed to really go its course and restore some sensibility to the market,” he explained to CNBC. “I think that’ll be a mild correction to what could happen.”
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Damn right it was a conspiracy! An obvious conspiracy since 1913 for anyone willing to open his eyes, analyze the evidence, and think. The market has been manipulated for the entire time.
As for the election, you have to look at the SP500 for just a couple months around the election. I had positioned myself for a Hillary win and had to lick my wounds for a week while I repositioned.
I, too, am waiting for the correction with baited breath.
What does "allowed" mean?
That government, or the reserve, or some conspirators intervened to stop the market dropping? I reckon that to stop a panic on Wall St would be beyond even Soros.
So, I follow the argument but, if the logic is right, why did it not happen 5 years ago? The golden years of Fed money creation was during the prev regime, now the Fed chair is talking tighter money, ok it is only talk so far, but could be an trigger for the panic 5 years overdue .
Anyone who says I do not understand macroeconomics is right, I blame it on grad school Keynsianism mushing my head.
I used to disagree on principal with Ron Paul in that I think fractional reserve banking is a good thing, really a beautiful thing where people put their money in the bank, which lends it out to the next person with a good idea to create wealth, and the money supply expands with all the good ideas out there to invest in. Ron Paul says even politicians who campaign on tight fiscal/monetary policy invariably want loose policy once in office. That's happening right now, making me start to change my mind. Maybe a central bank is great in theory, like the concept of a wise benevolent dictator, that is impractical.
I did not follow your observation the presidential election and the stock market, but in any case I think the connection is overstated. It's a noisy system, like the distribution of clouds or stars in the sky. Pareidolia makes us see patterns in the noise. In my world, it appears as "AWGN", but the random walk is everywhere. I do NOT dismiss the idea, though, that big elections can affect market psychology. I just think excessive debt is the huge elephant in the room and rational market participants are not fired up about politics.
tldr; Our open policy of living beyond our means, is a bigger problem than clandestine market manipulation.
Anyway, the market isn't make a lot of sense. And, it hasn't for a long time. I use a method of trend following that ignores the noise. And, I also think we should have a big correction soon - we're overdo. Want to see something funny? Look at a graph of the S&P 500 up to and through the Trump election. Pretty funny...
The best and most probably scenario is the crisis prompts us to take action, we partly fix the problems, and partly kick the can down the road. The worse case is how Germany degenerated into a fascist state. (We will not let the worse case happen.) The scenario where letting the problems go leads to a great flood wiping away decadence leaving behind the righteous Noahs and Utnapishtims of the world is a form of denial.
There's no shortcut to just starting now to fix the problems. Ron Paul is correct.