Danger of heuristics in decision making
These little mental shortcuts scare me. You don't always realize you are using it and they seem wired in from somewhere. Combine that with vast social media and mind control may already be in use...
The weapons of choice against it are obvious. The question becomes where do these heuristics come from and how do you convince others that the harder way is the much safer road?
The weapons of choice against it are obvious. The question becomes where do these heuristics come from and how do you convince others that the harder way is the much safer road?
For some types of problems we have no closed solutions or efficient step by step ways to solve them. We must rely on heuristics that address common and general cases. There is no such think as 100% perfect or flawless thinking for humans or any other conceivable being. We must mix and match as best we can to get the best understanding and conclusions possible in the time available and with the resources, including the limits of our own brains, available.
We deal with reality, not some idealized non-existent state.
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additional agenda while there -- to pick up a T shirt from a
particular restaurant. . after trying to convince some of the
crew to go with me, without success, I called for a taxi to
take me there for supper, one night. . when the taxi arrived,
I asked if I could sit in the front seat. . with a yes answer, we
had a neat ride to the restaurant -- the driver was a
middle-aged man with a family and a clean machine.
I got the shirt -- for a division manager at work -- which reads
"Suck Me, Shuck Me, Eat Me Raw ... the Atchafalaya River Cafe" -- j
p.s. got one of those shirts for me, too!
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Rule of thumb find a taxi with an older driver and no dents. Then use the fox hole analogy which holds their are no atheists when the bullets are flying. Close your eyes and pray a lot until reaching the destination. In any large city prepare for an inflated bill. It's a mater of off looking at death in the face with eyes wide shut and wallet wide open. Seems to come with a high survival rate. The alternative is tour bus or a hotel shuttle. Works in every city in the worlds - so far.
Another one courtesy of George Patton who did the first one is something about you are not supposed to die for your country. That's the other guys job. But making appoints follows. Most of this stuff goes back thousands of years. SunTzu Art of War for one. More things change they more they stay the same.
pulling out in front of someone who was turning left across
a 5-lane road packed with traffic. . we were doing a legal
u-turn from the "crash lane" in the middle. . I used
heuristic "analysis" of the driver's face to decide that
it was safe to pull out, in front of his car. . he was a
grey-haired calm-looking man driving a clean little
black sedan. . fast analysis, based on experience,
turned out okay. . there was no math available
at that moment ... but it is always a risk!!! -- j
p.s. I haven't had an accident in decades.
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That heuristics have risks should not be the sole sufficient and necessary reason to discard their use. Risk can be managed to take advantage of the reduced effort and simplicity of the techniques. These save time which is a commodity worthy of note, eh? I think so and my personal heuristic holds as a meditation on certainty. I have and retain a firm policy of flexibility. ;-)
-The best defense is a good offense
-A defense is only a place from which to prepare an ambush.
-Attack the hollow, avoid the weak.
-Allow them the courtesy of letting them weaken then kill themselves.
-The only uncertainty is to think there is uncertainty
When absolutely all else fails. Change the battle field, the battle time by switching to Plan 7a.
Stay flexible and make appointments.
It would seem that trying innovative ways, short cuts as it were, in problem solving are intended to be integrative, not compartmentalizing or leading to lazy thinking; as in using the same process over and over failing to possible see that your short cut doesn't always apply. (sounds like today's science and it's results),
I think this process was meant to adapt to the situation, knew knowledge, then the process wouldn't lead to an algorithm of sorts. As I am sure most realize that things not set by algorithms can not be solved in an algorithmic way
Yes, sometimes the hard way is the best way in instances where no previous successful path has been established.
It is integration that leads one to innovation and that takes knowledge of all sorts, uncompromised by compartmental walls.
Brings about a new meaning to the 'free flow of information' but in the mind, not the brain.
The brain is structured for established pathways and creating new one's is timely. The mind is much quicker.
It comes down to 'brain power' or 'mind speed'.
Clearly one can manipulate people with these, and social media is adept at it. Unfortunately these thought processes are far more widespread than objective thinking. Therefore, I recommend some of us that seek to convince others become adept at some of these in an appropriate manner to bring people around to objective thinking.
I'm always tempted to take the quick and easy road in every application from mental to physical. It almost always turns out badly. Convincing others depends on how much they are invested in their heuristic conclusions. Rational people can become lazy and when you point out the incorrectness of their road to their conclusion, usually they'll see it and change. If not, save your breath.
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