Isn't it true though that absent inflation the cost of living would go down and it would take less working hours to survive. Automation wouldn't just eliminate the need for human work totally

That's why I recommend Ken and his writings, and MarketMinder's analysis of 'news' from financial 'mavens.'

Prior to the last round of China-based financial knee-jerks, The IRA dollars my wife and I handed over to Ken's company to manage have allowed us to give up literally $700k in cash withdrawals and management fees over 11.3 years with them, and our net balance is down about 1% over that entire period.

So much for 'being screwed by Wall Street." Choose your money manager well and let them do their job. I was recommended to Fisher's company by a dear friend who kept me in good stock market tips for many years, then abruptly stopped making recommendations. Why?

He decided to enjoy life instead and said he was putting way too much time and energy into managing his investments. He handed all his retirement money to Fisher Investments and never looked back. We went 'up the mountain' to Ken's place and interviewed them and decided to entrust them, too.

Now, I toss all email or hardcopy offers from anyone offering to manage my money... retirement or otherwise.

And anyone offering a subscription to their Newsletter gets bit-bucketed, too. I've concluded that all those market wizards are making most of their money from such subscriptions and not from their investments. Or at least most from subscriptions. If their investment ideas were THAT good, 1) they'd be living happily on them and 2) the last thing they should want to do is share those ideas with anyone...

Their customers automatically become their competitors for the same rainbow-chasing.

In a free market, that's one of the dumbest things anyone can do. QED.

Live long and Prosper, CG.

Recall my First Law... "The Whole World Is A Tradeoff..."

There would be upsides and downsides to such an eventuality. For example, working at McDonald's will cease to be an 'entry-level position' for many workers because the numeric demand for such workers will evaporate. There will be dislocations and disruptions, as with any such change.

Stick around.. the show should be "interesting," to say the least.

I agree, but most mainscreamers rag about the size of the Debt, ignoring the important measure: The cost of Carrying the Debt as a fraction of GDP.

I liken it to the size of my home mortgage versus my gross pay or annual burn rate.

When I bought my (high-priced) house in Silicon Valley, the carrying costs (minimum monthly mortgage payments) created a negative cash flow until my wife got a job. The mortgage principal was about three times my gross salary.

After years of inflation (and depreciation of the dollars I was using to pay the carrying costs) AND a few raises, the monthly payments got so manageable I started to prepay the balance. With a few stock options sold, I paid off the mortgage about ten or more years before it was due to complete.

Oh, and the interest rate at the start was 9.75%... "the last mortgage under 10% in Silicon Valley in late 1978," according to my banker. As rates dropped, I re-fi'd at least once or twice.

Avoid Ken Fisher's books and other information feeds. He's definitely NOT a Keynesian. He would probably agree that Obama IS one, though, and then point out that the "recovery" under Obama has been one of the weakest and slowest in US history.

But hey, he's not a Keynesian, so WTF does HE know???? :)

Exactly. We can verify these numbers with sales at bellwether companies. Even if we take issue in how they compute the numbers, we can still use them if they're using the same methodology one year as the next.

Contrary to wht Michael says, facts are too far left or too far right. Facts are facts. People who can tell you how $hitty life is are easy to find. Show me people like Ken Fisher with a track record of analyzing the economy and helping people invest in things that work and end up making successful and profitable products.

Great analysis! I hope I live to c it

"why do so many of you AND the mainscream media panic when the RATE of CHANGE of that percentage trails off?!"
I know. My theory is journalists need something write about. I used to do paid writing and will probably do it again. I looked for stories that I thought would be coming up, like the anniversary of some famous event, and then I tried to write interesting stories. I never went into the "OMG this and that happened," but I know that's one way to get attention.

"YES, Obama is a Keynesian."
I'm a Keynesian too, but not by the definition that some people use as an excuse to spend. We've been in a tepid expansion for years, and my Keynesian model says it's passed time to stop the borrowing and even start retiring debt.

"I no longer believe Unemployment or Inflation figures"
"In employment figures, they don't count those who gave up, and in inflation they don't count food. "
But you believe figures from sales figures of food companies or wherever you do your research, which is a good thing. If food producers are able to raise prices w/o sales hurting, maybe consumer staples are the place to me. If you think this expansion has run its course, which I suspect is getting close, maybe it's staples and anything that's not correlated to the economic cycle. I am not an investing guru, but I'm much more interested in a collection of numbers from various companies they say are trustworthy rather than arguments for why a set of numbers is not trustworthy. Identifiying solutions is more valuable than identifying problems.

"I find it strange that Sanders, Clinton and Biden are all talking about jobs. If we believe the reports we are at full employment and all is well."
I believe we are at full employment and things are fine. Politician talk about jobs b/c it works. They turn unrelated things, like alternative energy, into alternative energy jobs. People respond to the jobs thing.

"Do not believe the face value of anything the regime tells you about anything."
Of course. But don't just throw up your hands and declare life a box of shits either. Instead find bellwether companies who products are correlated with the sector of the economy you're interested in. Look at sales at companies like Caterpiller that make things correlated to the economly. Look at number of overnight packages shipped by UPS. Look at a 100 indicators to make investment decisions. Ignore those who make a living telling you whose to blame for how crappy things supposedly are. Seek multiple independent sources and execute based on the facts.

Hell, earlier this year I envisioned the McDonalds of the Future, when wage demands would even be higher...

A driverless truck pulls up to the back of the Golden Arches and "mates" its delivery doors to the back of the building...

All necessary foodstuffs and other items are transferred into the building hands-free and hermetically sealed against contamination.

Customers, whether drive-through or sit-down, order by touchscreen and automated equipment prepares and delivers all orders to the customer in a neat little bundle.

Backup power keeps the 'store' running, even in power outages. Emergency supply deliveries in case of unusual out-of-stocks are roof-delivered by Amazon Prime helicopter-drones with similar mating connections.

Local maintenance, smiles for customers, and anything else are provided by the One Minimum-Wage attendee in the store unless he/she is on a nap or potty break.

And the unions did it to themselves without thinking....

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS140...

Never around 5%? Ever? ... looking for some more data from previous times...

Ok, average looks WAY above 5.... maybe 6-6.5?

Same link...
Input 1938 or earliest possible date, leaving 2015 as most recent...

One solution is to have many small countries each with their own constitution ( maybe each of the 50 states). Let them compete for residents

The higher the wage, the better automation looks, and the fewer the number of workers. It's cool how stupid they appear to be

The problem with the constitution or with any organizing document or philosophy is that if the majority of the people choose to ignore it, they will and it then becomes just a piece of paper.

This is also relevant for someone who wants to have a real world Gulch. If the majority of the people decide that the government should really be handing out goodies and empower the government to do so, all the Objectivist philosophy that everyone agreed to will go out the window.

Yes, that's probably a viable solution to that one problem, but imnsho, it's not getting to Root Cause...

Root Cause of what? People liking free stuff? I think THAT inclination goes back a few hundred thousand years.... :)

And when you wring all the benefits out of efficiency improvements, automation is one next logical step.

Unions are still fighting That reality and very stubbornly resisting the results of their own prior success in.... wait for it.... getting higher wages!

I love the irony in that.

Looks to me like the government is pandering to the entitlement bent they have encouraged over the years in employees. That accounts for the increase in regulations and requirements.

How does a politician like Rand Paul compete with the giveaway promises the socialist candidates make (that will be paid for by the "other" people)

All I can do is try to eliminate as much need for humans through automation and efficiency improvement.

Our consititution was set up to limit the powers of the government, so it cant get out of control. Well- that didnt work !!

Gee, and that's also known as "competition"... as some of the other comments accurately note.

Why didn't WF see the handwriting or the wall it was on five years ago?