The Bureaucratic Singularity: when technology develops faster than governmental control.
Note: The image at the link summarizes this post.
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If government regulation grows arithmetically, while technology grows exponentially, there reaches a point where innovation happens faster than the government can control it. This is the inflection point of The Bureaucratic Singularity.
DarkWeb, Bitcoin/blockchain, Arab Climate Change, Anonymous, AirBnB, Uber, etc. I submit we are at the inflection point - now.
Existence Exists. Reality. Our friend. And, no respecter of persons or weakness.
Specialization creates efficiencies, which drive competition and innovation - exponentially - changing the competitive landscape of society. Wealth, intelligence, and skill begets more wealth, intelligence, and skill.
Predictable Result A. The opportunities/speed to benefit society and (in the process) create wealth also grow exponentially (Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, etc.), with producers on the cutting edge gaining lion's shares of larger pies.
Predictable Result B: Consumers gain larger absolute slices but smaller relative slices. Successful Entrepreneurs move from Millionaires to Billionaires, while the average joe moves from plays to Netflix, telegraph to iPhones, libraries to the Internet. 5% on 100 million is 5 million. 50% of 100 thousand is 50 thousand. The size of the relative gap between rich and poor is accelerating even as the poor get richer in absolute terms.
Predictable Result C: Competitors (and their employees) lose their place at the table, unless they can adopt/adapt/innovate in pace with the cutting edge. For them, cutting edge is bleeding edge. This displacement is not trivial, and requires increasing investment by companies and individuals in (self) development, without certainty of where to invest.
Predictable Result D: Populist rhetoric/media becomes increasingly effective at portraying disparity. Envy and anger at disparity grows, leading to increased government attempts/regulation to "correct" this "imbalance." Democrat/Republican alike succumb to this pressure. Lobbying intensifies as the Beltway Parasites feed on the frenzy. Government interference in economy causes increasing systemic failures.
Suggestions:
1. Prepare yourself to surf this wave. Make sure you are on the cutting edge, not the bleeding edge.
2. Teach yourself to focus on and promote absolute wealth, not relative wealth.
3. Promote positive adaptations to the rapid changes, using profit as a slipstream to fund the promotion in an upward spiral.
--
If government regulation grows arithmetically, while technology grows exponentially, there reaches a point where innovation happens faster than the government can control it. This is the inflection point of The Bureaucratic Singularity.
DarkWeb, Bitcoin/blockchain, Arab Climate Change, Anonymous, AirBnB, Uber, etc. I submit we are at the inflection point - now.
Existence Exists. Reality. Our friend. And, no respecter of persons or weakness.
Specialization creates efficiencies, which drive competition and innovation - exponentially - changing the competitive landscape of society. Wealth, intelligence, and skill begets more wealth, intelligence, and skill.
Predictable Result A. The opportunities/speed to benefit society and (in the process) create wealth also grow exponentially (Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, etc.), with producers on the cutting edge gaining lion's shares of larger pies.
Predictable Result B: Consumers gain larger absolute slices but smaller relative slices. Successful Entrepreneurs move from Millionaires to Billionaires, while the average joe moves from plays to Netflix, telegraph to iPhones, libraries to the Internet. 5% on 100 million is 5 million. 50% of 100 thousand is 50 thousand. The size of the relative gap between rich and poor is accelerating even as the poor get richer in absolute terms.
Predictable Result C: Competitors (and their employees) lose their place at the table, unless they can adopt/adapt/innovate in pace with the cutting edge. For them, cutting edge is bleeding edge. This displacement is not trivial, and requires increasing investment by companies and individuals in (self) development, without certainty of where to invest.
Predictable Result D: Populist rhetoric/media becomes increasingly effective at portraying disparity. Envy and anger at disparity grows, leading to increased government attempts/regulation to "correct" this "imbalance." Democrat/Republican alike succumb to this pressure. Lobbying intensifies as the Beltway Parasites feed on the frenzy. Government interference in economy causes increasing systemic failures.
Suggestions:
1. Prepare yourself to surf this wave. Make sure you are on the cutting edge, not the bleeding edge.
2. Teach yourself to focus on and promote absolute wealth, not relative wealth.
3. Promote positive adaptations to the rapid changes, using profit as a slipstream to fund the promotion in an upward spiral.
Previous comments... You are currently on page 3.
equation, with y going to minus "infinity" at x=0 . . it's plain
that it wasn't a mathematician who chose the terms for
the source article.
it is, of course, the point of intersection -- maybe that's what
they meant to say. -- j
.
HW has just put in writing, something I have said for years. He/she said it better. In Russia, my grandfather did beautiful leather work, mainly sword and dagger scabbards. In America, he worked in a factory as a manual laborer. But he didn't complain because even though he went from craftsman to laborer, he lived better than he could even aspire to in Russia. He even was able to have caviar every now and then. (Not beluga, but the cheaper stuff.)
Or, I hope you are wrong and I am right.
Government will certainly try to make it difficult - and may even succeed. We will still find a way around those punks. Damnit!
As a professional mathematician, I must disagree on the use of terms argument. "inflection" means "the point on the curve where it starts to look different in an important way."
Then again, maybe I am making up terms and you are right. Yeah, that's it.
What do you call the "knee of the curve" point?
Or, is it even more difficult than that, because the equation "Y= -1/x" always looks the same at each order of magnitude, and the "knee of the curve" "inflection point thingy" is an illusion of distance?
I hope I am right and the future belongs to the desert/scientists.
Louis XIV had an awesome MySpace page for a while...
And, as Smith pointed out - it is not to the benefit of the humanity of the worker that he becomes a cog in a machine - it is the benefit of the society as a whole.
Specialization also need not be "insectual" (sorry, incest puns are a habit of mine). We each specialize in Ayn Rand - which doesn't suck. :-)
To challenge you - isn't it precisely because so many people specialize so profoundly that allows Musk to dream and invest - while other people figure out the details? (I won't mention the government cheese involved).
I vote B. :-)
I hope. :-)
Although, http://rationalspirituality.com/pages...
In terms of unpredictable intervals I argue that the democratization of technology and the number of fundamental breakthroughs that exist but have yet to be integrated/applied will lead to creativity unlike we have ever seen. It will be unpredictable in moments, but the trend will be relatively smooth.
And - They are still working on Net Neutrality (arithmetic) , while the internet has grown exponentially. (he says, hoping this carries water)...
And secondly, doesn't technology that has significant impact, occur at unpredictable intervals, ie EM uses, transistor, maser/laser?
While it's true that technology grows on technology, but so does regulation.
Elon Musk defies the dictum of specialization, making his fortune with PayPal, and striking out in multiple technological directions, with space launchers, solar energy, electric vehicles, and high speed transportation (Hyperloop).
Right now we appear to be engaging in a battle between results B and D. If B wins, we will see the world's first trillionaire, most likely a space entrepreneur who mines asteroids. If D wins, we may see the end of the American experiment, collapsing in violence.
There is an aspect of this that I think of as 'virtual Australias'. When you engage in interactions that are beyond the sphere of control, you have the freedom of a 'new land'. When we discuss the union's demands for increased minimum wage leading to robotization of fast food, we are talking about this. (The Maker movement is another example.)
I am very aware that Louis XIV, Kublai Kahn, Alexander the Great...none of them had or could have had HVAC or the Internet. "Is it not passing brave to be a king, and ride in triumph through [a personal virtual Persepolis on the Internet]?"
Jan
refers to the "edge" of a black hole, and it's an odd
choice here. . and inflection refers to the point where
a curve changes from positive to negative slope, or from
increasing 1st derivative to decreasing 1st derivatve --
or vice versa, in both cases. . I can see the black hole
analogy, kinda, but the word inflection??? -- j
.
The government can simply do what it wants now, like forbidding any profits over $xx, or forbidding any income over $xx by making it subject to 100% tax.
There is directive 10-289 stuff too. All bets are off with government these days. There seems to be nothing off the table now.
Now if we could only outsource government...
Will it always find some way to create laws to attempt to regulate (as much a s a mis-nomer as that term is)? Sure. However, the technology will change the game, and they will adapt themselves to it. The faster this happens, the more difficult it will be for them to do so.
AND, while they shut down napster and piratebay, dozens of other sites took their place. The key, as I understand it, is that more people are learning how to use the technologies. As the next 3 billion people come on line, the game as we have known it is forever changing.
I admit, it is a bit optimistic. However, I believe warranted.
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