Autism at 1 in 40 now? No, I don't think so.

Posted by $ Abaco 7 years, 8 months ago to Science
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You might have seen the latest headlines on this issue they have been trying to soft-sell via the news media for years. Back when they were reporting it was 1 in 80 I took two random samples, this was a decade ago, and came up with the same ratio both times: 1 in 19 had autism. I haven't bothered to look since. Don't need to. If I go down with my kids to the neighborhood park and there are five or more kids at the playground, one will have classic, obvious autism. Don't need to look for it very hard anymore. Per my math and the math of a mathematician at MIT half the kids born in 14 years will come down with it- 85% of the boys. How do you think society will handle that? There's a hint on that, too, in the news today. Basic math: 2 kids/family = every family, in effect, will be directly affected. Let me tell you...this destroys families.


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  • Posted by lrshultis 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Sorry, I was wrong in assuming that the streptococcus bacteria causing scarlet fever had a vaccine, I assumed so due to the pneumonia vaccines being vaccines against streptococcus bacteria.
    There is a kind of god of the gaps going on with vaccinations and autism. First thimerosal preservative was blamed for increases in autism. So, in the USA iit was removed from childhood vaccines in 2001. But the rates of autism kept climbing. So it must be the result of something else. So, a new hypothesis is developed and tested and shown to not be valid. It goes on and on, frightening parents into accepting more injury and deaths from disease by not vaccinating.

    Your link article has some nice graphs but they do not distinguish between those who are unvaccinated and those who are. Would both graphs tend to continue going to zero if the two groups were distinguished? For example, pediatric deaths for flu were 180 for a recent year. 60% were with unvaccinated children. So an excess of deaths were due to not being vaccinated. Is that acceptable to you?
    The for and the against both have a belief bias as to evidence. Last year the flu vaccine was only 40% effective. Suppose it had no effect would there be the same number, 80,000, or more or less than there were?
    Most importantly, court outcomes are not to be considered as scientific evidence.
    So some of the kids you knew were only mildly injured by diseases? One has to look at the whole group and not just just a subgroup.

    Here is a long research article which has a discussion of the relationship between autism spectrum disease and mitochondria dysfunction.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...

    I do not like meta-analysis because it can easily become a data mining process.

    It remains to be seen whether there is a link between autism and mitochondria dysfunction. The metabolism of mitochondria depends on many chemicals provided in cytoplasm which can affect its function.
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  • Posted by Lucky 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    By the statement- lrshultis is correct I mean that the comments of lrshultis about Mitochondrial DNA and "no evidence that vaccines promote autism" agree with my knowledge from several sources.

    When I say- "greenmedia is, well, it not even wrong",
    I mean, after a quick perusal, that the mishmash of badly presented misconceptions is not worth re- reading.

    More generally, the green movement is strong by appealing to emotions of fear and unthinking altruism. The argument of keeping an open mind is good. As a skeptic I say, yes but not to the extent your brains fall out. What is happening is they get you to make decisions without mind on emotional stories.
    The green movement believing without evidence that the planet is overloaded wants to cull the human population. Stopping vaccination is a good tool for that.
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  • Posted by Kittyhawk 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Lucky said, "lrshultis is correct.
    greenmedia is, well, it not even wrong." Can you show me where in the linked article anyone claims that mitochondrial DNA comes from the sperm and ovum? I just searched the article, and I still don't see it anywhere.
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  • Posted by Lucky 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    lrshultis is correct.
    greenmedia is, well, it not even wrong.

    Mitochondrial DNA is inherited only from the mother. This is fundamental in genetics. To deny that is to
    destroy a good part of human knowledge. (which could be the idea).

    The protocols for diagnosing autism vary so much that it just is not possible to reach any conclusion
    about the incidence of autism across any time frame of locality. There is no medical test for autism.
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  • Posted by Kittyhawk 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I'm not sure where you came across that inaccurate statement about mitochondrial DNA, but it certainly wasn't from the depositions I referenced which are quoted in the article, which were given by Johns Hopkins medical doctors who are considered experts in autism.

    When you say, "There is no evidence that vaccines promote autism," I have to wonder if you read the article I linked. It is a lengthy article, but very persuasive and worthwhile in my estimation. And the article lays out very clear evidence that vaccines do cause autism, though that evidence has been ignored or intentionally buried by government officials and pharmaceutical companies.

    I'm no spring chicken myself, so I only had a vaccination for measles out of that list of diseases you provided. (Actually, there is still no vaccine for scarlet fever that I'm aware of.) In my experience of childhood, there were no quarantines and none of the kids I knew of from the neighborhood or school were seriously injured or killed by contagious disease.

    If you look at a chart which shows the number of fatalities from these diseases -- one which tracks the numbers from the 1800s to the present -- you will see that the number declines sharply before vaccines for specific diseases are even introduced. We've certainly seen reductions in the number of children disabled and killed by these diseases in the past 100 years. But attributing the reduction to vaccines rather than to improvements in sanitation, hygiene, nutrition and medical care does not make sense when the reduced rates of fatalities precede the vaccines. The pro-vaxxers like to cut off the earlier part of the chart, and only show a few years prior to introduction of vaccines, which distorts the picture, and makes it appear that vaccines are causing the decline in fatalities. If you evaluate the evidence with an open mind, I think you'll agree that vaccines can not reasonably be considered to be a significant cause of declines in mortality. See http://healthimpactnews.com/2013/an-h...
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  • Posted by lrshultis 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    If I recall right, there is a statement that mitochondria are produced by the DNA of the nuclei from the sperm and the ovum during fertilization. It is not. Mitochondrial DNA is inherited in the mitochondria within the ovum which has been passed down through the females. There is no evidence that vaccines promote autism. It might be good to spread out the many shots given at vary young age where the immune system might be overwhelmed. Much immunity is inherited from the mother, especially what bacterial growths are transmitted to the mouth and gastrointestinal tract.
    I was born in 1940 when there were not shots given until school age at five years old. All I got were for diphtheria and smallpox vaccines. Measles, scarlet fever, pneumonia, mumps, chickenpox, and other diseases disabled or killed many as they do today in undeveloped countries. There were quarantines for many homes. Even in the late forties there were no vaccines but quarantines. My house was quarantined due to two of my six sibling getting scarlet fever, so my father was not allowed to enter the house and would leave groceries on the porch. I did not like the large sulfa tablets. I spent the quarantine period assembling model airplane kits that I won on the "Uncle Ned's Squadron" radio program from WGN out of Chicago. All I got was two weeks out of school. Sick times were not very pleasant in those days.
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  • Posted by term2 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I have thought for awhile that there are genetic factors that influence the relative strength of thinking vs feeling in people. If the feeling level is turned up high, they are more likely to be emotionally driven and leftists. If the feeling level is not so high, they are more likely to be able to think clearly and more rationally.

    I have also wondered if a similar genetic difference can account for autism. In this case, the sensory input levels might be elevated to the point it overloads the brain and the person becomes confused by and rebels from sensory inputs. Just something that occurred to me while watching Good Doctor on TV
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  • Posted by $ 25n56il4 7 years, 8 months ago
    Autism is very difficult to diagnose. When my oldest son was eight years old his teacher suggested he should take "attention getting drugs", I suggested she take a Valium and quit trying to practice medicine without a license. When he graduated from college 'Summa cum laude' guess who was right?
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  • Posted by $ 25n56il4 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yeah well, I lost 40 pounds and kept blaming it on everything until my thyroid jumped out looking like a butterfly! Spent six days in the hospital. Took the I-131 and went home. I was 36 and my friendly doctor said, 'This problem was originally diagnosed in England in young women in their 30's and they were confined in an asylum until they died! Really????Made me feel really good!
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  • Posted by Solver 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    A quote,
    Dr Stadler:
    “But you've made them think it's science. Science! You've taken the achievements of the mind to destroy the mind.”
    - Atlas Shrugged - Ayn Rand

    And of course,
    “Science was born as a result and consequence of philosophy; it cannot survive without a philosophical base. If philosophy perishes, science will be next to go.”
    - Ayn Rand
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  • Posted by exceller 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yes, I remember that line from the book which gave me more faith in AR's truths.

    As a scientist I can fully attest to that.
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  • Posted by exceller 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    What is puzzling that if genetics are involved, it is not going back more than a couple of decades so there has to be other reasons at work.

    We did not have so many dysfunctional youngsters in the past.
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  • Posted by Maritimus 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Hey, Solver,
    You lit up my curiosity. Where can you send me to find more on how postmodernism started and what postmodernism is. I finished high school in 1953 and got some college and graduate education and never ever heard of postmodernism. Now, at 83, I have all the time I wish to learn what I missed. Can you help me please?
    Your grateful Maritimus
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  • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I get that now...wasn't aware back then but don't trust anything they say these days.

    They did explain that my body was attacking my thyroid...I went into thyroid storm at age 38. Believe it or not, a Chiropractor was the one that caught it.
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  • Posted by $ 25n56il4 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Dear Carl: Graves Disease isn't a disease of the thyroid. Graves Disease is a symptom of an Autoimmune Disease. Your thyroid was okay. That ugly Autoimmune Disease was the culprit. Been there. Done that.
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  • Posted by $ 25n56il4 7 years, 8 months ago
    I could get in trouble with this issue. In my clinic, over a 20 year period, I saw an average of 8,000 patients a year for over 12,000 visits. I recall one autistic child and actually, he may have had a fear of strangers and might not have actually been autistic. But his father was an idiot!
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  • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 7 years, 8 months ago
    I was a hyperactive kid, most curious, energetic boys are to some degree but as it turns out, I had Graves disease and could of easily moderated that with diet...and I found out too late; After they nuked my thyroid...and guess what!...I am still hyperactive but no longer ruled by Adrenalin.
    I can only imagine what they would have diagnosed me with these days.
    I was born with a propensity for this disease, I didn't have to manifest it but something, food, environment, allopathic medicine, fluoride treatments, (teeth), vaccines or even mercury in the fillings of my teeth could of been the trigger...no one has been able to pin it down.

    PS...O and A type blood people are prone to hyperactivity by mere consequence of their blood type...add in DNA heritage and bingo, you got it.

    Would have been nice to be armed with that info before hand.
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  • Posted by Turfprint 7 years, 8 months ago
    At 61 ended up teaching at a middle school and with a 4 year old daughter to raise. After 18 years of teaching I have seen a lot of children with many degrees of behavioral issues. They range from too well behaved, (believe it or not,) to full blown autism. With a clinical autism case (observable and diagnosable symptoms) people are covertly looking for 666 or some other demonic mark hidden on the child. Sometimes the autistic child can be brutally honest, as when they calmly inform another child, "If I knew I wouldn’t get caught, I would kill you." And they truly mean it. ...Advice here: ... keep your children far away from them. But as I mentioned, there seem to be degrees of infliction and other behavior issues make the waters cloudy. After closely interacting with thousands of children on a broad spectrum of age and diverse socioeconomic status, I believe 1 in 19 to be high side of possible but not in severity. The most severe cases would be more like 1 in 500, digressing very slowly to that 1:19 ratio. Overall, my experience leaves me to believe that "quality time" is a convenient rationalization for modern parenting times, with overworked people trying to survive, let alone prosper. It's a tricky catch-all because hopefully all time with children is quality, and actually is. But it's quantity time that counts more. If you are spending enough time with your children you know if they did their homework, like their English teacher, need shoelaces, or are taking drugs and making bombs in the basement. There is a closeness that comes with spending lots of time with your children that is an intuition or sixth sense to keep you in front of problems. This is bitter medicine for people who get home from work and want to drop from exhaustion and zone out on Jeopardy or some other escape. Raising children is a lot of work, and ‘not’ in the way Hillary meant it, “it truly takes a village.”…and many hats including the most important, a chauffeur’s hat.
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  • Posted by drjmetz 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    We have certainly reached a point where the general public cannot possibly understand some of the nuances of science - the anti-vax hysteria is a really good example, as you noted above.

    To me, though, there is an even more insidious trend - the desire to elevate a child's status to the point of immunity from bad behavior. We see this every day with story after story about college campuses, where people claim with straight faces that they can't be accused of racism, sexism, x-ism, because they are immune from such criticism based upon their identity.

    We've long taught our children in schools that there IS such a thing as perfection, and that they can achieve perfection by a simple equation: Actual Work + Good Enough Excuse = Perfection.

    Now, instead of doing actual work, we see both parents and children striving to find the "perfect excuse," and with trends like this Autism "spectrum" we've given it to them on a silver platter.
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 8 months ago
    I am glad this thread hasn't devolved into the typical debate (what a waste of time that is).

    I want to share something I've shared here before. When I was well into my discovery on this topic I happened to also be well into reading Atlas Shrugged. I, in the medical/government complex around us, was seeing glaring contradictions. I was seeing very bad behavior by people one would normally trust with our medical safety. I saw studies corrupted. This confused me. Then, one night while laying by my fireplace after everybody else had gone to bed I read the following quote. (going off memory here) "When their little comforts are threatened you can be sure that science is the first thing men will sacrifice." You need to read that scene in the book again. That was when I realized how dead on Ayn Rand was about a lot. Should we be cautious about government, yet trust it with select things like the safety of our children? No. That's a contradiction. When you see contradictions - check your premises. That is what is needed here. When I saw what I've seen I realized that when our society finally checks its premises on this the damage will be so great that it will be very painfully cathartic. That, I guess, is the point of my thread. Be cautious. Check your premises. If you're here at the Gulch you're not a dummy. May your kids and their kids be fine...
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