

- Navigation
- Hot
- New
- Recent Comments
- Activity Feed
- Marketplace
- Members Directory
- Producer's Lounge
- Producer's Vault
- The Gulch: Live! (New)
- Ask the Gulch!
- Going Galt
- Books
- Business
- Classifieds
- Culture
- Economics
- Education
- Entertainment
- Government
- History
- Humor
- Legislation
- Movies
- News
- Philosophy
- Pics
- Politics
- Science
- Technology
- Video
- The Gulch: Best of
- The Gulch: Bugs
- The Gulch: Feature Requests
- The Gulch: Featured Producers
- The Gulch: General
- The Gulch: Introductions
- The Gulch: Local
- The Gulch: Promotions
Previous comments... You are currently on page 2.
Macron might be French for Merkin.
May as in mayday, mayday.
The economies of Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba are disintegrating, that's why there reports that the Islamic regime wants to strike out. Russia and China could face the same situation. These countries are still operating economies like medieval empires.
The supposed intelligence about a planned attack on American assets or people is a smoke screen to put a carrier battle group in the area. Iran has made use of small, fast gunboats to harass US warships, and now those boats have been armed with antishipping missiles that could sink tankers and block oil shipments from their Sunni enemies like Saudi Arabia. Given that threat, two things could happen if Iran gambles on the attempt: US guided missile cruisers could provide cover for tankers by knocking down the Iranian missiles; if Iran sends too many missiles for the defense and begins hitting the tankers, US carrier aircraft will take out the gunboats.
It is possible that the conflict will end with limited naval action, rather than having to put boots on the ground. After reminding the mullahs of the tremendous force we can bring to bear, we'll make an offer to sit down and work toward lifting sanctions, provided they change their aggressive actions against their neighbors, and give up on nuclear weapons.
Mike Pompeo announces that all sanctions against Iran are fully in play and no exceptions (real). Iran continues its belligerence because they are homicidal maniacs and their loss of oil revenues start to take effect. Trump begins supplying Saudi Arabia with drones to retaliate for Iranian sabotage on Saudi oil tankers. Iran begins to ratchet things up and builds a missile platform protected by SAM's overlooking the Hormuz Strait (using Russian hardware). They then declare the Strait off-limits to anyone who supports the sanctions. The world ignores them until Iran uses the platform to target a major oil tanker passing out of the Strait - sinking it and effectively blocking the Strait for three months while a salvage crew works to get the ship out of the way. In the meantime, a US/Saudi air raid wipes out not only the missile site, but every Iranian oil platform standing in retaliation. When the Iranians launch fighters, the US destroys their airbases with strikes from air-launched cruise missiles from that bomber fleet poised nearby (also real).
Because Iran can't do anything militarily, they ramp up their support of Hamas and begin supporting further harassment of Israel. Bolstered by Trump's support and the military strikes against Iran, Israel declares that they aren't going to put up with Hamas any longer and any further strikes by Hamas are going to result in the targeting of Hamas leaders in addition to anyone carrying out strikes on Israeli territories. Hamas dares Israel to do something by launching rockets and Israel carries out its threats by taking out ten Hamas militant leaders with air strikes. Enraged an defiant, Hamas appeals to the UN and launches more rockets. The US blocks yet another resolution condemning Israel all while Israel retaliates against another ten Hamas leaders.
The Democrats wait until August of 2020 to attempt to Impeach Trump. They wager that this will weaken the President in the lead-up to the elections. Several Democrats in swing states vote against Impeachment but the measure passes with a slight majority. The Senate then takes up the Conviction trial headed by Chief Justice Roberts which fails 42 - 58 - again with several swing-state Democrats voting against because of a total lack of evidence.
The Republicans use the farce trial and complete lack of any substance in Democrats charges - to take back the House by a few scant votes. Democrats lose another 3 seats in the Senate. Trump is re-elected over Cory Booker by 48 electoral college votes - as well as a majority of the popular vote - in large measure because of the progress in building the southern border wall but also because the economy continues to hum along.
Early in 2021, William Barr announces criminal charges to be levied against every player involved in the Steele Dossier scandal including James Comey. They are tried and convicted. They roll on former White House officials such as Loretta Lynch and the Page and Stryck texts even indict the Former President himself. The 2022 elections are a landslide of red where the Republicans gain another seven Senate seats (close to a super-majority) and another 34 House seats.
The big downer during this period is the growing instability in Europe thanks to unlimited immigration policies and a failing healthcare system. Europe descends into an economic downturn which drags much of the rest of the world with it. By 2022, instead of admitting failure and lightening the tax burdens, European leaders led by Germany and France impose higher taxes. The resulting economic shocks send the EU into financial chaos and general rioting breaks out in several major European cities. Tourism shrinks to almost nothing, further exacerbating things and sending the EU into recession.
The EU's bad fortunes are also bad for Russia as their purchases of oil slow down despite the Iranian embargo. Without oil revenues, the Russian economy also slows down - bolstered only by an uptick in arms sales to the Middle East. Russia limps along - still engaged in a stalemated conflict in the Ukraine which drags on for four more years with little respite.
China's fake economy takes a nosedive as US tariffs and a failing EU economy not only push prices up but demand down. Faced with either fixing its internal problems or going to war, China decides to see if the US can fight on two fronts and uses its bases on coral atolls to declare exclusionary access zones across much of the South China Sea up to and including territorial waters of the Phillippines, Vietnam, and even Japan. They even torpedo a US destroyer who challenges them. In turn, US fast-attack submarines attack and sink one of China's two ballistic missile submarines. China backs off.
But now it is time for the US economy to hit a wall. Burgeoning entitlement programs and reckless spending and deficits hit a wall with no one to purchase US bonds. The US has no choice but to print money - driving up inflation and spurring another round of Quantitative Easing. When this too fails and even the Fed begins to stop buying the fake debt it is creating, entitlement spending along with debt service force a liquidity crisis in the United States. A massive run on the banks begins and ends with a total destruction of the US economy. The entire world then goes into a deep economic malaise and wars quickly start as the only way to get people doing something productive/destructive. So begins WW III.
Since I had friends in the Marine barracks, you can turn the whole place into glass for all I care.
But should some stupid country starts a war with US?
Me dino sez make them wish they never even thought about it.
If we "destroy some oil platforms" will will have attacked Iranian land bases as well. They fought against Iraq and fought them to a stand stil over their encroughing across the border way bask in the 90'. They would fignt us even harder and longer.
There may be a stock market pull back, but a crash is not likey under either Trump of Pence.
I do like your sense of history and historical projection. Well thought outy and cogent. I just have a slightly different take on things. Conditions ffor your scenario are not right -- yet. Would not take much to make them right. I just don't see those conditions moving in that direction -- yet.
+1 (more if I could)
My random guess crystal ball:
We destroy some oil platforms, and the problem is quickly forgotten.
Trump does seek a second term. Pence becomes president in 2021.
A predominately Sunni neighbor country gets the wrong message from the US Ambassador and thinks we won't mess with them as long as they don't harass oil freighters. So they invade a neighboring country. President Pence helps put to together an international coalition to oust them.
Prior to Pence's election in Nov 2020, the stock market suffers an historic crash in Oct of '19, ending the decade of the teens, which will always be remembered for an upbeat zeitgeist when the stock market tripled. Pence has to raise taxes to service the huge debts created during the Trump administration. The taxes will eventually lead to a balanced budget. Reforms in the Middle East start a slow process to more secular democratic governments in the Arab world. It turns out Trump had drug addiction and mental illness in office, but no one cares much because his results (economy, Middle East peace) were good, he turned out to be innocent of all suspected illegal dealings in office, and it's bad to make fun of the mentally ill. Despite things going generally well, the recession of '23 helps make Pence a one-term president, through no fault of Pence's.
The recession of '23 feels like it drags on and on for years, except for people in biotech. Personalized drug treatments upend the medical industry. Many diseases thought to be terminal are now treatable. It's not until 2030, seven years after the recession of '23 that the rising tide lifts all boats. There is also a peace dividend from peace in the Middle East, which Trump is now being partially credited for helping to build, and from balanced budget that Pence fought for years earlier. Things are going so well, people start to wonder if we'll cure aging soon and who will get the treatments.
All that optimism is interrupted in 2033 when a nanofiber attack in Kuala Lumpur kills thousand of random innocent people in a horrific way by nanofibers damaging their lungs, ears, noses, and throats. The world takes it hard because international travel, trade, and communication are more common than now, and an international trade group acts as loose world government, partly uniting all countries. The attack is linked to network of extremists who reject global trade, capitalism, and seek a simpler time. Over-reaction to this KL nanofiber attack causes a global recession. By the mid 2040s, though, "KL-Nano" is receding into history, and new cryptocurrency financing vehicles funnel a lot of investment money to the next generation of biotech and nanotech. The first mile-high building is completed using new matierals. There is talk of a space elevator in the future to lower the cost of travelling to space, where 150 people live full-time working in research, mining, and factories.
I have no notion that any of this narrative will come true, but history really does repeat itself, so I would be surprised if I didn't come close to some correct guesses just by luck.
Load more comments...