The Next "Great Recession"
So there are so many holes to poke in this article it won't have the solidity of swiss cheese when we're done, but I always think it interesting to throw in a few Bloomberg articles just to emphasize that along with their warped viewpoint, there is a hint of truth.
False things stated in the article:
1. That the last recession only lasted eighteen months. It actually lasted eight YEARS - the entirety of the Obama Presidency. Economic activity only went back to normal once Trump was elected and his Agency heads started reversing onerous Obama-era policies.
2. That we are in our ninth year of economic expansion. This one is patently false. We're barely into year two. The economy struggled mightily all during Obama's reign in every conceivable category.
3. That the next recession could drag on longer than eighteen months. Aside from #1 above, the Democrats aren't in charge to be able to draw out the malaise and keep heaping on more regulations - which were the primary cause of the last recession.
Truths:
1. That the Fed is out of tools. They've already tried so-called "quantitative easing", which is nothing more than a huge transfer of wealth - trillions of dollars to the Federal Reserve itself. Now the Fed is trying desperately to get all that debt off their balance sheets by having it purchased by your tax dollars. But the Fed can't take on much more debt - even in the form of IOU's to itself.
2. Rising interest rates can be a problem. Clarification: rising interest rates are a problem to anyone who is in debt - especially those on a variable-rate payment system (like most revolving credit lines). That includes unfortunately most of America, who has been drunk on "easy money" for the past two decades - especially the Federal Government. As interest rates rise, so does the percentage of tax income necessary to service the National Debt, meaning that entitlement programs are going to have to take a hit eventually.
3. Rising interest rates are a boon to investors who can now demand reasonable returns on their moneys. We've been so low for so long that people have forgotten what it was like to get 2-4% on their standard savings accounts, 5% on a decent CD, or 7-8% on a bond. (Homeowners, beware!)
Things that slipped out:
1. That the Fed's goal is 2% inflation every year. (That's because the Fed works to bail out the government for its egregious spending policies - which didn't get any better this year even with Republicans in control.) This is a TERRIBLE goal because inflation is wealth transfer from the makers to the takers by devaluing debt.
2. The Fed is worried about our "financial foundation." That's because it stinks right now. The investment market is a three-legged stool consisting of stocks, bonds, and real estate. Bonds are worthless right now because they depend on higher interest rates to attract investors. What this does is push wealth into the other two legs of the stool and the result has been exploding stock prices that have no relation to real earnings. The other problem is that because interest rates are so low, real estate values are also overvalued because many people are pouring "cheap" money into homes they can't afford, inflating the market. On top of that, instead of getting Fannie and Freddie OUT of the housing market during the last crash, they are even MORE involved than ever, meaning that when the next real estate crisis which hits will be even worse than before.
Buckle up. It's going to be a wild ride.
False things stated in the article:
1. That the last recession only lasted eighteen months. It actually lasted eight YEARS - the entirety of the Obama Presidency. Economic activity only went back to normal once Trump was elected and his Agency heads started reversing onerous Obama-era policies.
2. That we are in our ninth year of economic expansion. This one is patently false. We're barely into year two. The economy struggled mightily all during Obama's reign in every conceivable category.
3. That the next recession could drag on longer than eighteen months. Aside from #1 above, the Democrats aren't in charge to be able to draw out the malaise and keep heaping on more regulations - which were the primary cause of the last recession.
Truths:
1. That the Fed is out of tools. They've already tried so-called "quantitative easing", which is nothing more than a huge transfer of wealth - trillions of dollars to the Federal Reserve itself. Now the Fed is trying desperately to get all that debt off their balance sheets by having it purchased by your tax dollars. But the Fed can't take on much more debt - even in the form of IOU's to itself.
2. Rising interest rates can be a problem. Clarification: rising interest rates are a problem to anyone who is in debt - especially those on a variable-rate payment system (like most revolving credit lines). That includes unfortunately most of America, who has been drunk on "easy money" for the past two decades - especially the Federal Government. As interest rates rise, so does the percentage of tax income necessary to service the National Debt, meaning that entitlement programs are going to have to take a hit eventually.
3. Rising interest rates are a boon to investors who can now demand reasonable returns on their moneys. We've been so low for so long that people have forgotten what it was like to get 2-4% on their standard savings accounts, 5% on a decent CD, or 7-8% on a bond. (Homeowners, beware!)
Things that slipped out:
1. That the Fed's goal is 2% inflation every year. (That's because the Fed works to bail out the government for its egregious spending policies - which didn't get any better this year even with Republicans in control.) This is a TERRIBLE goal because inflation is wealth transfer from the makers to the takers by devaluing debt.
2. The Fed is worried about our "financial foundation." That's because it stinks right now. The investment market is a three-legged stool consisting of stocks, bonds, and real estate. Bonds are worthless right now because they depend on higher interest rates to attract investors. What this does is push wealth into the other two legs of the stool and the result has been exploding stock prices that have no relation to real earnings. The other problem is that because interest rates are so low, real estate values are also overvalued because many people are pouring "cheap" money into homes they can't afford, inflating the market. On top of that, instead of getting Fannie and Freddie OUT of the housing market during the last crash, they are even MORE involved than ever, meaning that when the next real estate crisis which hits will be even worse than before.
Buckle up. It's going to be a wild ride.
All the talk about the Florida school shooting really doesnt affect MY life at all. I should try to fortify the LOCAL schools that my kids go to , but the days and days of regurgitating politicians talking about this doesnt make much difference in my life or the lives of my kids.
I should NOT get involved in the media analysis of its, and spend my time having a good and safe life for me and my kids.
I like this phrase. Just for fun I'm going to use it in a sentence. At the gym they have TVs by the treadmills. The news channels have 24 hours a day to fill, and they appear to fill it with mostly crisis-talk.
At the time just before the Great Depression, the US was looking to wind down its open borders policies and scale back immigration. Following WW I - which hadn't really affected the US or its industries - the US people were fat, dumb, and happy - and increasingly isolationist in policy (this was true even deep into WW II). And as the US' industrial and military might was growing (and the rest of the world was still recovering from WW I) tariffs were popular among the people because they really only put the squeeze on foreign competition - not US business. In steel, the US had some of the best mills (best technology, most efficient) in the world and plentiful ore and coal supplies to process it with. We could produce our own cotton and timber, and most everything else. And we were competitive while doing so.
Things have changed in the past century. WW II destroyed most other nations' factories and production centers, and when we helped rebuild them, we incorporated the latest technology. But we failed to update our own. And so we created the conditions for our own demise. Add to that the growing influence (and especially cost) of labor unions and it is no surprise that our industries have been outsourced to other nations. The only way to become productive again is to rebuild new factories using new technology and get rid of the unions - and all other forms of government controls - that artificially inflate costs.
Yes. And if they must do something in a crisis, why not debate it before it happens? What will we do unemployment hits 10%? What do we do someone sets off a crude dirty bomb in a major city? You shouldn't make decisions in the heat of the moment. But people tend to which is why politicians never let a crisis go to waste.
Just a thought.
Stay well.
Maritimus
EDIT: Corrected a typo
recall reading about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff which
took place early in the Hoover administration; and an opinion that that really prolonged the Great De-
pression. And now Trump has been proposing tariffs.
As you're already a prolific blogger, maybe you've written an article about your bond-trading experience I haven't read, but I'd sure be interested. Could you post a link?
Next crisis should be followed by the government doing nothing to keep business from going bankrupt if they are overextended.
Your comments are right on. It seems so few really understand these basically simple things, and continue to vote for those that want to take from producers and give to the leeches.
That big bad damnation Donald Trumpin' thumpin' boogie bear is gonna get you!
He's gonna get you BIG TIME!
So all you impeachment petitioners get the lead out before your assets all go poof!
A Home before 2008/9 that would sell for 750K is now lucky to bring in 350K...
I know. It was the crisis when "hoocudanode" was coined because people seemed shocked by it even though blogs like Calculated Risk were predicting it for years. It's a thing that should be easily correctable, but we wait for crises and apply bandaids.
That's why I say I can't listen to it anymore. In a few years, it will be hoocudanode again and probably a mad dash to assign blame. I'm glad I don't work in policy.
I can't listen to political crap about it anymore. I can just work around its results.